UK Labour Market Faces Hiring Slump as Economic Uncertainty Persists: Employment Outlook Survey Q2 2025
The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) for Q2 2025 reveals a significant slowdown in hiring activity across the United Kingdom, with 42% of businesses planning no changes to their headcount. This cautious approach, coupled with a -27% decline in planned hiring volume compared to Q1 2025, suggests that the UK's "hiring recession" is expected to continue until at least the summer.
London, UK: April 08, 2025 –The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for Q2 2025 in the UK reveals a significant slowdown in hiring, with 42% of businesses expecting no change in headcount. For companies planning to hire, their anticipated volume is down by 27% compared to the previous quarter, suggesting a “hiring recession” due to economic uncertainties and rising costs. This forward-looking survey, based on interviews with nearly 40,000 employers, asks about anticipated employment changes for the upcoming quarter, also highlighting a persistent talent shortage, with 76% of employers finding it difficult to fill vacancies. The report also identifies the top five hardest skills to find, offering insight into current labour market demands.
The survey, a comprehensive and forward-looking indicator of labour market trends running since 1962, interviewed 39,449 public and private employers across 41 countries, including the UK, between January 2nd and 31st, 2025. The UK findings paint a picture of businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude as they assess anticipated cost increases expected in April.
Holding Fire on Headcount:
The decision by a substantial portion of UK employers to maintain their current headcount highlights the prevailing economic uncertainties. While the survey does not explicitly detail the specific reasons driving this caution, it implies that businesses are taking stock of the economic landscape before committing to new hires.
Significant Drop in Hiring Volume:
For those employers who do anticipate changes in their workforce, the planned hiring volume is considerably lower than the previous quarter. This average decrease of 27% indicates a marked cooling in recruitment appetite across the UK. The survey calculates hiring volume by asking employers who plan to increase or decrease headcount by how many workers they expect this change to be. This figure is then compared as a percentage change against the previous quarter’s reported hiring volume.
Anticipated Hiring Recession:
ManpowerGroup anticipates that the current hiring slump will persist until the summer of 2025 at the earliest. This suggests a challenging period for job seekers and underscores the need for businesses to focus on internal strategies to maintain productivity.
Focus on Upskilling and Motivation:
In the face of hiring stagnation, the survey highlights the importance of offering opportunities to upskill existing employees and finding ways to keep teams motivated and energised. These strategies are deemed crucial for driving much-needed productivity during this period.
Talent Shortage Remains a Concern:
Despite the overall cautious hiring sentiment, the ManpowerGroup 2025 UK Talent Shortage figure stands at a significant 76%. This metric, derived from asking employers if they are experiencing difficulty filling vacancies due to a lack of available talent in the labour market, indicates that finding candidates with the necessary skills remains a major challenge for many organisations. The higher the percentage, the greater the reported difficulty in finding skilled candidates.
Hardest to Find Skills:
While the specific list of the top 5 hardest to find skills for Q2 2025 is not detailed in this excerpt, the survey does track these trends. Comparing the 2025 data with 2024 (as shown in one of the provided tables), provides insight into the evolving demands for specific skill sets in the UK labour market.
About the Survey:
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is recognized as a leading indicator of labour market trends globally. Its strength lies in its size, scope, longevity, and focus. Unlike surveys that report on past occurrences, the MEOS asks employers to forecast employment changes for the upcoming quarter. The survey employs a representative sample of employers from across participating countries, ensuring that the findings reflect the overall distribution of industry sectors and organisation sizes within each nation. In the UK, the survey interviews individuals within organisations who have a good understanding of staffing levels and hiring intentions, typically heads of HR, HR managers, or in smaller organisations, general managers or CEOs.
Forward-Looking Statements:
It is important to note that the MEOS report contains forward-looking statements regarding labour demand and economic uncertainty. Actual events and results may differ due to various risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. ManpowerGroup explicitly states that it has no obligation to update these forward-looking statements unless required by law.
Conclusion:
The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for Q2 2025 paints a picture of a UK labour market grappling with economic headwinds. The significant proportion of businesses holding off on hiring and the substantial decline in planned hiring volume indicate a period of stagnation. While talent shortages persist in specific areas, the overall outlook suggests a cautious approach from employers, emphasizing the need for businesses to focus on internal talent development and motivation to navigate the current economic climate. For further insights into the evolving workplace paradigm, visit
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